少进多少球?巴萨本赛季14次中门框,在西甲遥遥领先(巴萨本季14次中柱领跑西甲:究竟少进了几球?)

nd

Estimating goals lost

I’m analyzing how teams that hit the woodwork often score around 4-5 goals fewer than expected goals (xG). It’s tricky to generalize, so my best approach is to explain estimation: by summing the xG of shots hitting the frame, that gives the expected goals. Some rebounds lead to later goals, but if just direct shots are considered, they'd have scored that xG amount. I can give a range for the user’s question about "how many goals lost?" and suggest answering with "4-6 goals" as a concise estimate.Explaining xG and woodwork shots

I’m considering how to compute data about shots hitting the woodwork. If we fetch from Opta or Understat, we could potentially run a quick script, but I note the user hasn't asked for numbers right now, so it might be unnecessary. I realize I can’t equate woodwork to goals lost without knowing the xG of those shots. On average, shots that hit the frame have a typical xG of around 0.25–0.30, so I’ll provide this range in my explanation to keep it accurate!Estimating goals lost from woodwork

I’m approximating that shots hitting the woodwork yield an expected goals (xG) range of 0.25–0.30. If we apply this to 14 shots, that gives a range of roughly 3 to 5 goals fewer. I can provide a step-by-step method: gather shots that hit the woodwork, sum their xG, and subtract any goals scored immediately after rebounds. My concise answer will be that 3–5 goals fewer is a reasonable estimate. If the user provides a season or round, I can fetch data from Understat for precise numbers.Delivering explanation in Chinese

I don’t need to use a plan tool for this; I can just provide the response in Chinese, keeping it clear and concise. I'll avoid heavy formatting, but bullet points are acceptable. It’s also worth noting that they lead La Liga in woodwork hits, indicating they've had some bad luck. However, I should mention that finishing variance tends to even out over time. With these points in mind, I’ll craft my response accordingly.

大致少进3–5球(联赛)

  • 直觉估算:中框不等于“本该进”。更靠谱做法是看这些射门的xG。木框射门通常是高质量机会,平均xG大约在0.25–0.30之间。14次×0.25–0.30≈3.5–4.2 个“期望进球”,因此量级在3–5球。
  • 误差来源:具体取决于这14脚的射门位置/角度/对抗强度;部分中框会带来补射进球,净损失会更低;不同数据商的xG模型也会有差异。
  • 精确算法:把这14次中框对应的xG加总,再减去同一回合补射造成的进球数,就是“因中框未兑现的净进球”。
  • ![dwo](/assets/images/C59FDD89.jpeg)

如果你需要精确到小数,我可以按比赛逐场抓取这些射门并给出总xG与净影响。

gthex